The Dutch economy

Inflation remained high, ECB deposit rate decreased in 2024

• The inflation rate remained higher than expected and reached 3.9% in 2024 (CBS, 2025). Inflation is expected to be 2.4% in 2025 (Oxford Economics, 2024).

• The growth in inflation rates in 2024 was largely driven by rising wages, which increased by no less than 6.5% annually (CBS, 2025). The wage growth is expected to remain relatively high in the year to come. According to the CPB (August 2024), wage growth is expected to reach 4.3% in 2025.

• After the ECB deposit rate sharply increased during 2022 and 2023 the ECB decreased the deposit rate in 2024 from 4.0% to 3.0%, in four steps of 25 bps.

• The Dutch 10-year government bond rate increased significantly during 2022, and has since then fluctuated between 2.5% and 3.0%. At the end of 2024, it stood at 2.6% (Investing.com, 2025). A decrease is expected towards a level around 2.3% in the next two years (Oxford Economics, 2024).

Lower interest rates stimulated economic growth

• After negative GDP growth figures in 2023, the Dutch economy showed positive developments during 2024. The lowering of interest rates have stimulated economic growth. GDP is expected to be 1.8% in Q4 2024 (CBS and ING, 2025). Due to various geopolitical tensions, the economic outlook remains uncertain.

• The positive growth in 2024 was mainly caused by improving purchasing power, as households experienced greater wage growth and more tax reliefs. Additionally, the strong labour market (low unemployment rate and many vacancies) will further boost income and purchasing power.

Figure 7: Macro-economic situation Dutch economy

Source: CBS, 2025; Investing.com, 2025

Figure 8: ECB deposit rate and 10-yr Dutch government bond

Source: ECB, 2024; Investing.com, 2025